The BSE Sensex fell 83.07 points or 0.44% to settle at 18,762.80. The index fell 132.80 points at the day's low of 18,713.07 in afternoon trade, its lowest level since 29 June 2011. The Sensex jumped 185.51 points at the day's high of 19,031.38 in early trade, its highest level since 2 May 2011. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 20.20 points or 0.36% to 5,627.20. The Nifty hit high of 5,705.80 in intraday trade, its highest level since 3 May 2011. The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 0.69% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.83%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. The BSE Mid-Cap has risen 5.79% in six sessions from a recent low of 6,524.21 on 23 June 2011. The BSE Small-Cap has risen 5.69% in six sessions from a recent low of 7,781.94 on 23 June 2011.
The market breadth was positive. On BSE, 1,700 shares advanced while 1,152 shares declined and a total of 132 shares remained unchanged. Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 17 stocks rose while the rest of them fell.
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES: “The sell-off seen today was overdue as the Sensex had rallied nearly 1300 points in previous six days, supported by strong inflow of about ` 6,500 crore from foreign institutional investors. The underlying sentiments are however positive as can be evidenced by the outperformance of the broad market indices on Friday and the positive market breadth. We continue with our upside targets of 5700 for the Nifty in the coming week. Immediate Nifty supports to watch on any weakness are at 5566-5434”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, Nifty witnessed a consolidation, wherein, upside was capped on account of selling, yet lower supports were maintained. A good rollover and maintenance of Rs 11 premium between spot and first month future, ensures the bullishness of our market. After a range bound movement for most part of the session, Nifty descended and breached the 5640 level. Despite a fall, bulls controlled the market, which reflects through positive market breadth. This may support the buying momentum in coming sessions. Nifty successfully closed above the resistances of 9, 14, 50 and 100 day’s SMA placed at 5476, 5447, 5519 & 5546 and below the 200 day’s SMA placed at 5748. These levels may act as new ranges in the coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX closed at a modest level of 18.21%, indicating average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 61.86 levels and MACD was above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that, market may witness some upward movements in coming sessions with higher volatility”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “Next session’s range for the Nifty may be in between 5608-5693 and the resistance for the Nifty may be at 5729 if the Nifty goes above the level of 5693 and the support for the Nifty may be at 5577 and the key support for the Nifty may be at 5552. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range 11210-11380. Above the given range 11555-11572 may act as strong resistance while 11140 and 11060 may act as strong support levels for Bank Nifty”.
BONANZA ONLINE: “After making hammer candlestick pattern on weekly chart, Nifty showed good strength, which shows that bulls are having ball in their hand. However, Nifty may trade in 5500-5800 range for some days. Traders may take delivery based long positions in selective stocks. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5650. If Nifty shows strength above 5650 levels then we may see rally 5750/5800/5850. levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5650 levels then profit booking till 5550/5500/5450 may also be seen”.
| Duration | Action | Entry Zone (NF) | For Target of | Stop Loss |
| For Monday | Buy | 5620-5600 | 5660-5680 | 5580 |
| For the Week | Buy | 5580-5620 | 5720-5750 | 5550 |
BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Nifty is likely to consolidate in the range of 5,500-5,750. The market trend in July month is expected to be influenced by the progress of monsoon showers in India as well as the announcements of corporate results for Q1FY12”.
KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty above 5,600 levels with stop loss placed at 5,580, targeting 5,630-5,650 levels. Alternatively, trade short below 5,580 levels, with stop loss placed at 5,605, targeting lower supports”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Nifty after testing 5,700 came down on profit booking and closed near the low of the day. Sustainability of the market above 5,662 is doubtful as the journey towards 5,700 from 5,400 was a continuous one. We may see a consolidation in the market at around 5,515 and 5,468 levels while the major resistance is at 5,750 (200 DMA). We have the Q1 results which will start from July 8th with HDFC”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Correction in crude oil and steeper than anticipated oil price hike was received well by the market helping the market recover strongly from the oversold territory. The oil price hike also assuaged investor nervousness from a policy perspective, implying better political will. CCEA clearing the Cairn deal, albeit with riders, too is a positive. The Greece parliament voting for the austerity plan helped equities internationally. Large caps predominantly rallied with FII buying ` 73 bn over the last seven trading sessions. Consumption theme again played out stronger. The market, we believe, has touched the upper band of the current trading range and has higher probability of drifting down from these levels. The break out of this trading range on the upside looks remote in the very short term. The trade deficit for the month of May came at ~$15bn, despite better show on the export front. Our argument in the interim would be negated only with a significant correction in industrial commodities, especially crude and copper. We continue to remain positive in the consumption and healthcare space in the short to medium term and recommend to add on every decline. Technically, market is likely to find support at 5580 & 5496 levels and would face resistance at 5670 & 5710 levels”.
ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty may continue the uptrend up to 5720-5750 in the short-term and 5480, the 200 day EMA, may act as an immediate major support for the index. The Bank Nifty is likely to trade positive above 11350 for a target of 11600. The major support for the index lies around 10900”.
PINC RESEARCH: “Nifty’s strong upmove in the last few days has vindicated our bullish stance . The factors that we had stated in our previous weekly report seem to be on track for Nifty’s journey towards 6050-6075. Apart from the medium term oscillators which are exhibiting positive crossover, a good weekly closing reflected in a bullish candlestick confirms the “hammer” pattern that emerged in the previous week. Going forward, the Nifty should target the area of the 6050-6075 which is the middle area of the trend channel (refer chart). A minor retracement cannot be ruled out in the coming week, but that would only be a blip to a larger uptrend”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “The market tried to go towards 5725 and got stuck at 5706 and reacted to close negative for the day. Technically the market could react and slip down towards 5570 zones. Strong resistance exists around 5725 zones. The support for the Nifty is at 5570 and resistance at 5725. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 18635-18562 and resistance at 19080”.
MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has given a pull back rally of almost 9.8% in a time span of just nine trading sessions. Now Nifty is expected to face a stiff resistance near 5760. If it is able to maintain above 5760, an upward rally might take it to 5940 in the extreme short term. However some leading indicators (like Stochastic & RSI) are giving the over bought signal of Nifty. So a short term correction to 5470 can not be ruled out. For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 5570 and the resistance is 5680. If Nifty breaks 5570, it may further go down to 5520 and then 5470. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5680, the level of 5760-5820 would become the next target”.
JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The Indian equity market continued the rally, stretching the recovery to the second consecutive week. Even though the last day's selling can be regarded only as a profit booking ahead of the weekend, the pattern the general market indices – NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex – formed is quite interesting. This, along with the fact that the technical momentum indicators are trading in the overbought region, will make the 100-days Moving Average a critical support for the market direction in the week ahead. The MACD is continuing in the positive side with better momentum. However, the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are in the overbought zone, which can be risky for the continuation of the current bull-run, before (atleast) a small correction. The pattern of the sell-off which occurred in the last day is also adding to the concerns. Considering all these facts, the 100-days moving average which is trading at 5570 for NSE Nifty, will become critical for the market direction – on a closing basis. The trend is expected to remain intact as long as the index manages to close above this. However a failure can possibly stretch the downside further with first support at 5495, followed by 5420. However, if the index manages to hold the critical support mentioned above, the first and major resistance for the week ahead is seem at 5720 – any short-term upside will pan-out only after a close above this level. Even then, a sustained upside can be an extreme expectation for the market”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “The markets made significant gains during the week and barring a few, all sectors made robust gains. This week Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5700–5800 in the upper side and 5400-5300 in the lower side”.
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS: “While the rally has been quite spectacular, the uncomforting part is it has been rather steep and without any intermediate correction. A correction in between would have made a higher bottom on the daily chart thereby completing a higher-top higher-bottom formation which would have given more credence to the up move. On Friday, Nifty reversed from the vicinity of 5720, a very crucial trend line resistance emanating from adjoining 6338, 6181 and 5944, the tops made in November 2010 and January and April 2011, as shown in the daily chart below. Now that the benchmark has galloped nearly 10% from the bottom of 5196 to the top of 5706 in just two weeks, it is necessary that a correction, both time-wise and price-wise takes place, which will prepare Nifty for the next up move. A correction till about 5470, where both 20 as well as 34 day moving averages are placed currently, would be ideal. Below 5470, 5390, the 61.8% retracement level of the 5196-5706 would be a crucial support to watch out for, a violation of which will put a question mark on the whole rally. On the upside, 5720, as explained above is a crucial resistance, a crossover of which can take the benchmark to 5944, the top made in April, 2011. We would advise fresh buying only on dips, preferably below 5500 with a strict stop loss of 5390”.
SWASTIKA INVESTMART: “On weekly charts, a White Candlestick is formed with long upper shadow and negligible lower shadow. The candle is formed above the weekly resistance of 5500 indicating some more bullishness in the coming sessions. The momentum indicators RSI and Stochastic oscillator move towards northwards direction is indicating some strength for the market. But, as index bounced back from 5700 levels some indecision is prevailed for the market to hold at these levels. For the coming week, Nifty is likely to consolidate in the range of 5500 to 5650. The market trend in July month is expected to be influenced by the announcements of corporate results for Q1FY12. 5700 will act as immediate resistance for the index while plunge below 5550 should be exposing Nifty to the deeper supports of 5470 and 5350”.
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