"TRADING IDEA FOR MONDAY (14.03.2011)"

The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 153.89 points or 0.84% to 18,174.09. The Sensex lost 264.69 points at the day's low of 18,063.29 in afternoon trade. The index rose 40.45 points at the day's high of 18,368.43 in mid-morning trade. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 48.95 points or 0.89% to 5,445.45. The Nifty hit a high of 5,502.70 and low of 5,411.55 during the day. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 1.07% and the BSE Small-Cap index declined 1.12%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.
The market breadth was weak after swinging between positive and negative zone earlier in the day. On BSE, 1958 shares declined while 935 shares gained and a total of 115 shares remained unchanged.
The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs. 3241 crore, higher than Rs. 2996 crore on Thursday, 10 March 2011.
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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
SKP SECURITIES: “Nifty may face resistance at 5550-5630 and take Support at 5400-5320”.
DANI SECURITIES: “Nifty may face resistance around 5495–5540 whereas it may take support around 5400–5360”.
JRG SECURITIES (INDI-TRADE): “The market indices failed to retain the recovery after the initial slump, and slipped into negative on market closing. Technically the current sell-off can be regarded the pullback from the 200-days moving average, which is one of the crucial levels to decide the market direction.
The Stochastic Oscillators is in the course of retreat from the overbought region – this is a normal scenario, and not much alarming, since the overall short-medium term trend is still intact as indicated by the MACD. The money-flows are also continuing to be positive.
The critical level for the week ahead for NSE Nifty is expected to be 5370. The market will extend the downside only if trades and remains below this. The first support for the week ahead will be 5280 and the short-term support is expected at 5130.
On upside the Nifty will possibly find first resistance at 5535, followed by the 200-days Exponential Moving Average of 5600 and the 200-days Simple Moving Average at 5670”.
MANSUKH BROKING HOUSE: “Below 5,670 (200 dma) sentiments remain subdued and we might see some sharp drift near to 5,200-5,250. Exactly to our expectations spot index continued to find support around the same. We likely to continue this approach in the upcoming week and expecting a slightly range bound scenario between 5,200-5,670. Hence traders are advised to remain cautious at this stage and use `sell on rally` strategy rather than creating any fresh long ones. On the flip side any bounce back from current levels may reap indices towards 5,630-5,650 level where we might see some sort of consolidation. Any break out above this may generate some suggestive buying opportunities though 5,800-5,850 might be the next resistance zone”.
ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Next week we have inflation data for the month of February and RBI mid quarterly policy review. RBI governor would have tough task on hand – trying to manage inflation and growth at the same time. With the external environment being fragile, it is imperative for India to get its act together in politics and policy reforms. 5400 seems to be immediate support. In case it is broken, traders should exit of leveraged bets. Technically, market is likely to find support at 5400 & 5300 levels and would face resistance at 5550 & 5650 levels”.
ICICI DIRECT: “Failure to pull back and sustain above 5460 levels is likely to bring further selling pressure and the Nifty may test 5350 on downsides. At the same time, 5560 will continue to act as a major resistance. The Bank Nifty has immediate support at 10500 while resistance lies at 10900/11100 levels”.
GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORY (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is still in a sideways zone and is likely to trouble traders. The support for the Nifty is at 5,460-5,376 and resistance at 5,560-5,654. For Sensex, the crucial support on the downside is at 18,250-18,103 and resistance at 18,592”.
IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Technically, on the daily charts, the NSE Nifty continues to trade below the 50 DMA whereas, on the weekly charts, the 50-share index has faced strong resistance at the 50 week moving average. Next week will be an important one as markets will react to monthly inflation data, RBI’s mid-quarter policy review and the Fed meeting”.
KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive on Monday. Trade long in Nifty from current levels else from 5400 with stop loss placed below 5380 targeting 5480-5500 levels”.
PINC RESEARCH: “We expect the market to continue with this characteristic and send confusing signals for some more time. But the weak closing below 5460 on Friday means that the short term trend may remain weak/neutral. However, we find signs of life in the Mid-cap index. A clear case of technical positive divergence has begun to emerge in this index indicating few odds for a negative trend. The medium term chart of the Nifty has taken support at a perfect technical level. With indicators reaching oversold levels odds for a further decline are very low. We expect the markets to trade sideways for some time with high volatility. It is a wait and watch situation as the index is not gaining any directional thrust as yet”.

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