Nifty Futures
opened higher on Friday by 15 points @ 5307, which was the low point of the day. It quickly started climbing toward the 5350 mark and passed it with heavy momentum
making an intraday high of 5389 and closing the session @5366. This is consecutive ninth week we have seen nifty futures in positive on week to week basis.
opened higher on Friday by 15 points @ 5307, which was the low point of the day. It quickly started climbing toward the 5350 mark and passed it with heavy momentum making an intraday high of 5389 and closing the session @5366. This is consecutive ninth week we have seen nifty futures in positive on week to week basis.Nifty futures is facing heavy selling pressure at the 5400 mark. Only a break above the 5406-5411 level with good volumes
and momentum will attract fresh new buying, taking Nifty Futures all the way towards the important 5450 and 5500 level. The minor support now comes in at 5306 level and thereafter at 5280-5255 mark.
and momentum will attract fresh new buying, taking Nifty Futures all the way towards the important 5450 and 5500 level. The minor support now comes in at 5306 level and thereafter at 5280-5255 mark.Nifty Futures is still Neutral to Bullish. Only a close below the 5255 mark will negate the short term 
uptrend and take nifty towards the 5120-5070 mark. On the upside the major resistance comes in at 5500 level.
Market, even though looks very shaky, there are really NO confirmation signals yet that the trend has changed and that we will go down next week. Hence, the outlook
for coming week is similar to last week. Stay bullish with extremely tight stops if you are long. Do NOT initiate short positions yet.
FOR MONDAY (12.04.2010)
NIFTY FUTURE:: TRADERS CAN ENTER FRESH SHORTS ON MONDAY ARROUND 5398-5400 WITH STOPLOSS OF 5414 FOR A TARGET OF 5368 or SHORTS BELOW 5343 WITH STOPLOSS OF 5364 FOR A TARGET OF 5306. ADVISE NOT TO CARRY POSITION IN FUTURE OR OPTIONS.
NIFTY OPTIONS:: Nifty OI PCR rise to 1.39 from 1.19 on the back of put addition at 5200 and 5300 level week on week basis and now NIFTY will be range bound in the coming week. However, on the higher side, trade would be to book profit in long positions around 5450-5500 level to re-enter at lower level, the level (5400) which consists of highest OI among the Nifty call options. In Addition to that, 5200 put consists of highest OI among the Nifty put options, indicating market players expect 5150-5180 level to act as a very strong support in the coming days. BUY 5300 OR 5400 PE WHEN NIFTY SPOT AROUND 5388-5398
STOCKS:: WATCH FOR BHARATI, RELIANCE INDUSTRY (IF BREAKS 1150 WITH VOLUME, IT WILL TOUCH 1255 WITHIN ONE WEEK). OF COURSE, MY FAVIOURITE IS IFCI.
P.S.: Euro zone Finance Ministers unanimously approved a detailed 30 billion euro emergency aid mechanism for debt-plagued Greece on Sunday but stressed it had not requested that the plan be activated now. The German Government welcomes an agreement by euro zone finance ministers on how to help debt-plagued Greece if needed, a government official told Reuters on Sunday. (Source REUTERS).
The Greece concerns are easing out and we may see an auction of the Euro happening in Greece sometime next week. Germany has announced that it will bail out only its own banks and will have nothing to do with Greece. The Greece index is seeing a rally for the first time in more than two weeks and hence the stigma is gradually receding into the back for now.
FOR TUESDAY (13.04.2010)
The market opened flat today i.e., on the first day of the week but slipped to day’s low in early trades on the spat between regulators SEBI and IRDA on the ULIP
issue. The markets recovered around early noon on buying in front line stocks but failed to sustain at higher levels and slipped back again in the red. The market showed a modest recovery during the closing hours but finally wound up the session in the negative. PSU stocks together with capital goods, auto, banking and power stocks remained subdued and closed weak. The Sensex, after declining to 17,816 in late afternoon trade, closed the day at 17,853, losing 80 points, while the Nifty closed at 5339 with a loss of 22 points after touching a low of 5324 in intra day trades. The market breadth remained positive as out of 2968 stocks traded on BSE, 1583 stocks moved higher. 1302 stocks declined and 83 stocks ended flat. Meantime, according to the data released yesterday by the government, industrial output rose 15% in February from a year earlier whereas January industrial output remained unchanged at 16.7%.
Tomorrow INFOSYS guidance is the most important and will decide the trend. It is expected okay for the time being but concerns about Rupee Dollar term.
NIFTY FUTURE
Nifty future may slide further 5306-5281 level once it trades and remains below 5325. Strong resistance for the Nifty future exists at 5368 which if cross decisively with volumes, then Nifty future may move up to 5378/5384/5398. It will be safe to short Nifty below 5320 with a stoploss of 5355 for a target of 5270/5230 and to buy Nifty above 5380 with a stoploss of 5350 for a target of 5410/5430 (positional).
NIFTY OPTIONS
BUY IFCI 55CA ABV 1.10 TGT 1.30-1.40 SL 0.95
BUY NIFTY 5300CE ABV 99 TGT 111-116 SL 92.60
SELL NIFTY 5300PE ABV 57.75 TGT 75-83 SL 48.25
STOCKS:: Watch MPHASIS (640 strong support) and GEOMETRIC SOFTWARE.
FOR WEDNESDAY (14.04.2010) Indian Market will be closed due to Dr. Ambedkar Jayanti.
Infosys Technologies
Q4FY2010 net income at Rs1,600 crore; the stock jumps 3.69% up. Reserve Bank of India relaxes norms on collaterals for Foreign Institutional Investors. SEBI, IRDA to approach High Court on unit-linked insurance plan row.
Nifty April 2010 futures were at 5,330.30; at a premium of 7.35 points over spot closing of 5,322.95. Turnover in NSE's Futures and Options (F&O) segment was Rs 61,875.33 crore; lower than Rs 66,287.59 crore on Monday, 12 April 2010.
FOR THURSDAY (15.04.2010)
THREE TRADING DAYS AHEAD BEFORE THE RBI POLICY MEET ON 20/04/2010. AS INFLATION HITS LIFE TIME HIGH WE EXPECT MORE TIGHTENING OF LIQUIDITY 
FROM RBI.
The current price action is close to a breakdown below the bottom trend line
of this pattern. I will be extremely cautious now. Just think about this: WHAT WOULD HAPPENED IF THE HEAVYWEIGHT INFY NOT SUPPORTED THE MARKET ON THE LAST TRADING DAY ?
As per global cues, market will open in green and try to pass 5344-5379 and may be succeed to pass 5398-5400. Watch 5406-5411 level, if failed to cross, short nifty without any hesitation.
NIFTY FUTURES:: BUY AT 5300-5305 WITH STOP LOSS OF 5282 FOR A TARGET OF 5350-5355 AND IF CROSS 5356, POSSIBLE TARGET WILL BE 5398. ON THE OTHERSIDE, SELL BELOW 5306 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 5334 FOR A TARGET OF 5286-5268.
OPTIONS:: IF ANYBODY HOLDING PUTS, PLS. HOLD UPTO 20.04.2010. FOR OTHERS, BUY NIFTY 5300CE AROUND 85.00 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 79.35 FOR A TGT 99-102
BUY NIFTY 5300PE AROUND 54.00 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 52.65 FOR A TGT 70-73
BUY BALRAMCHIN 100CA AROUND 1.65 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 1.35 FOR A TGT 2.20-2.45
BUY IFCI 55CA AROUND 0.80 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 0.70 FOR A TGT 1.05-1.20
BUY RELIANCE 1160CA AROUND 8.05 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 6.80 FOR A TGT 10.35-11.50
STOCKS:: Watch Firstsource Solutions, Praj Industries.
My personal view is CAUTION. EXIT FROM ALL LONGS AND BUY PUTS ON EACH RISE OF 30 POINTS FROM 5400 AREA AND HOLD TILL 20.04.2010.
Disclaimer:: I am holding one nifty short @ 5334(positiional) and one INFY 2750 PA @ 40.10 (Both are for April expiry)
FOR FRIDAY (16.04.2010)
NOTE:: Traders are advised to trade in derivatives/cash segments according to their risk taking appetite.
"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
uptrend and take nifty towards the 5120-5070 mark. On the upside the major resistance comes in at 5500 level.Market, even though looks very shaky, there are really NO confirmation signals yet that the trend has changed and that we will go down next week. Hence, the outlook
for coming week is similar to last week. Stay bullish with extremely tight stops if you are long. Do NOT initiate short positions yet. FOR MONDAY (12.04.2010)
NIFTY FUTURE:: TRADERS CAN ENTER FRESH SHORTS ON MONDAY ARROUND 5398-5400 WITH STOPLOSS OF 5414 FOR A TARGET OF 5368 or SHORTS BELOW 5343 WITH STOPLOSS OF 5364 FOR A TARGET OF 5306. ADVISE NOT TO CARRY POSITION IN FUTURE OR OPTIONS.
NIFTY OPTIONS:: Nifty OI PCR rise to 1.39 from 1.19 on the back of put addition at 5200 and 5300 level week on week basis and now NIFTY will be range bound in the coming week. However, on the higher side, trade would be to book profit in long positions around 5450-5500 level to re-enter at lower level, the level (5400) which consists of highest OI among the Nifty call options. In Addition to that, 5200 put consists of highest OI among the Nifty put options, indicating market players expect 5150-5180 level to act as a very strong support in the coming days. BUY 5300 OR 5400 PE WHEN NIFTY SPOT AROUND 5388-5398
STOCKS:: WATCH FOR BHARATI, RELIANCE INDUSTRY (IF BREAKS 1150 WITH VOLUME, IT WILL TOUCH 1255 WITHIN ONE WEEK). OF COURSE, MY FAVIOURITE IS IFCI.
P.S.: Euro zone Finance Ministers unanimously approved a detailed 30 billion euro emergency aid mechanism for debt-plagued Greece on Sunday but stressed it had not requested that the plan be activated now. The German Government welcomes an agreement by euro zone finance ministers on how to help debt-plagued Greece if needed, a government official told Reuters on Sunday. (Source REUTERS).
The Greece concerns are easing out and we may see an auction of the Euro happening in Greece sometime next week. Germany has announced that it will bail out only its own banks and will have nothing to do with Greece. The Greece index is seeing a rally for the first time in more than two weeks and hence the stigma is gradually receding into the back for now.
FOR TUESDAY (13.04.2010)
The market opened flat today i.e., on the first day of the week but slipped to day’s low in early trades on the spat between regulators SEBI and IRDA on the ULIP
issue. The markets recovered around early noon on buying in front line stocks but failed to sustain at higher levels and slipped back again in the red. The market showed a modest recovery during the closing hours but finally wound up the session in the negative. PSU stocks together with capital goods, auto, banking and power stocks remained subdued and closed weak. The Sensex, after declining to 17,816 in late afternoon trade, closed the day at 17,853, losing 80 points, while the Nifty closed at 5339 with a loss of 22 points after touching a low of 5324 in intra day trades. The market breadth remained positive as out of 2968 stocks traded on BSE, 1583 stocks moved higher. 1302 stocks declined and 83 stocks ended flat. Meantime, according to the data released yesterday by the government, industrial output rose 15% in February from a year earlier whereas January industrial output remained unchanged at 16.7%. Tomorrow INFOSYS guidance is the most important and will decide the trend. It is expected okay for the time being but concerns about Rupee Dollar term.
NIFTY FUTURE
Nifty future may slide further 5306-5281 level once it trades and remains below 5325. Strong resistance for the Nifty future exists at 5368 which if cross decisively with volumes, then Nifty future may move up to 5378/5384/5398. It will be safe to short Nifty below 5320 with a stoploss of 5355 for a target of 5270/5230 and to buy Nifty above 5380 with a stoploss of 5350 for a target of 5410/5430 (positional).
NIFTY OPTIONS
BUY IFCI 55CA ABV 1.10 TGT 1.30-1.40 SL 0.95
BUY NIFTY 5300CE ABV 99 TGT 111-116 SL 92.60
SELL NIFTY 5300PE ABV 57.75 TGT 75-83 SL 48.25
STOCKS:: Watch MPHASIS (640 strong support) and GEOMETRIC SOFTWARE.
FOR WEDNESDAY (14.04.2010) Indian Market will be closed due to Dr. Ambedkar Jayanti.
Infosys Technologies
Q4FY2010 net income at Rs1,600 crore; the stock jumps 3.69% up. Reserve Bank of India relaxes norms on collaterals for Foreign Institutional Investors. SEBI, IRDA to approach High Court on unit-linked insurance plan row.Nifty April 2010 futures were at 5,330.30; at a premium of 7.35 points over spot closing of 5,322.95. Turnover in NSE's Futures and Options (F&O) segment was Rs 61,875.33 crore; lower than Rs 66,287.59 crore on Monday, 12 April 2010.
FOR THURSDAY (15.04.2010)
THREE TRADING DAYS AHEAD BEFORE THE RBI POLICY MEET ON 20/04/2010. AS INFLATION
HITS LIFE TIME HIGH WE EXPECT MORE TIGHTENING OF LIQUIDITY FROM RBI.The current price action is close to a breakdown below the bottom trend line
of this pattern. I will be extremely cautious now. Just think about this: WHAT WOULD HAPPENED IF THE HEAVYWEIGHT INFY NOT SUPPORTED THE MARKET ON THE LAST TRADING DAY ?As per global cues, market will open in green and try to pass 5344-5379 and may be succeed to pass 5398-5400. Watch 5406-5411 level, if failed to cross, short nifty without any hesitation.
NIFTY FUTURES:: BUY AT 5300-5305 WITH STOP LOSS OF 5282 FOR A TARGET OF 5350-5355 AND IF CROSS 5356, POSSIBLE TARGET WILL BE 5398. ON THE OTHERSIDE, SELL BELOW 5306 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 5334 FOR A TARGET OF 5286-5268.
OPTIONS:: IF ANYBODY HOLDING PUTS, PLS. HOLD UPTO 20.04.2010. FOR OTHERS, BUY NIFTY 5300CE AROUND 85.00 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 79.35 FOR A TGT 99-102
BUY NIFTY 5300PE AROUND 54.00 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 52.65 FOR A TGT 70-73
BUY BALRAMCHIN 100CA AROUND 1.65 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 1.35 FOR A TGT 2.20-2.45
BUY IFCI 55CA AROUND 0.80 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 0.70 FOR A TGT 1.05-1.20
BUY RELIANCE 1160CA AROUND 8.05 WITH A STOPLOSS OF 6.80 FOR A TGT 10.35-11.50
STOCKS:: Watch Firstsource Solutions, Praj Industries.
My personal view is CAUTION. EXIT FROM ALL LONGS AND BUY PUTS ON EACH RISE OF 30 POINTS FROM 5400 AREA AND HOLD TILL 20.04.2010.
Disclaimer:: I am holding one nifty short @ 5334(positiional) and one INFY 2750 PA @ 40.10 (Both are for April expiry)
FOR FRIDAY (16.04.2010)
NOTE:: Traders are advised to trade in derivatives/cash segments according to their risk taking appetite.
"I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
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