"WEEKLY VIEWS FOR THE WEEK 05.04.2010 - 09.04.2010" : updated on 08.04.2010 (NIGHT)

FY11 STARTS WITH POSITIVE NOTE.

FY10 RALLY SUPPORTED BY STRONG EARNING GROWTH IS NOW HISTORY. INDIAN MARKET AWAITING FOR Q4 RESULTS. BHEL STARTS RESULT SEASON WITH A BANG. NIFTY FUTURES IS UNABLE TO CROSS 5325–5350, EVEN AFTER REPEATED ATTEMPTS DUE TO LACK OF VOLUME AND MOMENTUM. IN FACT, IT NEEDS TO BREAK THIS ZONE NOW. WE ARE IN UPPER END OF THE RANGE AND IT MAY BE BROKEN ON HIGHER SIDE. WE HAVE SEEN THAT GLOBAL MARKETS ARE TRYING TO MAKE NEW HIGHS.

THE ACTION PLAN FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTINUE WITH THE TREND, BE BULLISH BUT WITH STRICT STOPLOSS. PLEASE AVOID TO CARRY OVERNIGHT LONG POSITIONS ESPECIALLY IN DERIVATIVE MARKETS. A SPIKE IN VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX), EXIT ALL LONGS IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT INITIATE SHORT POSITIONS. WAIT FOR THE CORRECT SIGNAL FOR TREND CHANGING.

NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHLY VOLATILE

NIFTY FUTURE:

Future (29-APR-2010): NIFTY
Price : 5306.80 Premium Rs.45.2 (0.86%)
Turnover : 713927.75 (-37.96% ) Lakh
Open Interest : 23768900
Adds 430200 (1.81%) Shares

NIFTY OPTIONS:
PE : 5100.00 (29-Apr-2010)
Price : 33.15
Turnover : 152555.14 Lakh
Open Interest : 3624100
Adds (87350.00) Shares
CE : 5200.00 (29-Apr-2010)                PE : 5200.00 (29-Apr-2010)
Price : 159.20                                    Price : 55.45
Turnover : 108531.39 Lakh                  Turnover : 408168.61 Lakh
Open Interest : 2327400                     Open Interest : 6770550 
Sheds (-248500.00) Shares                 Adds (697550.00) Shares
CE : 5300.00 (29-Apr-2010)                PE : 5300.00 (29-Apr-2010)
Price : 95.80                                     Price : 89.65
Turnover : 397512.33 Lakh                  Turnover : 389320.90 Lakh
Open Interest : 4861450                     Open Interest : 3437400 
Sheds (-102000.00) Shares                 Adds (161000.00) Shares
CE : 5400.00 (29-Apr-2010)                PE : 5400.00 (29-Apr-2010)
Price : 48.35                                      Price : 140.50
Turnover : 302207.27 Lakh                  Turnover : 75902.92 Lakh
Open Interest : 5277800                     Open Interest : 1843750
Adds (746750.00) Shares                    Adds (5550.00) Shares

For MONDAY (05.04.2010):: Nifty Futures opened higher on last trading day by approx 24 points @ 5286, due to the positive opening in Asian markets, immediately tested the 5280 area, making an 5276 as an intraday low. Nifty stayed in the narrow range of 5276–5294 most part of the day, and gained a good momentum in the last few minutes to make an attempt to pass by the 5325 area, but failed and finally closed the day @ 5305, making an intraday high of 5330. BUY NIFTY FUTURE ABOVE 5311 WITH A STRICT STOPLOSS OF 5294 FOR A TARGET OF 5325 AND 5343. BELOW 5294, SELL AT 5293 WITH A STRICT STOPLOSS 5306 FOR A TARGET OF 5281 AND 5264.
Watch IFCI (I am holding one lot 52.50 CA @ 1.15/-; lot size 7880), JPASSO, PUNJ LLOYD. If Reliance hold 1074 and/or back from 1074, target will be 1100 (probably it will touch now 1130 in this week/before 16th). Risky player can go long for TV18 for a target of 80-84 and NTPC for a target of 218-220.
Note: Someone asked me about Renuka sugar. Wait and watch for some more days. We will get the best price for BALCHINI, BAJAJHIND and SHREERENUKA in sugar pack.
For TUESDAY (06.04.2010)::  Today  i.e.,  on  Monday, the market opened gap up on positive global
cues and remained steady within a narrow band till mid afternoon. Markets witness late hour rally when hectic buying in front line coupled with index heavy weight stocks pulled up the indices to day’s high and turned the sentiment highly positive. The market closed the session with buoyant mood. Market participants are of the opinion that Q4 results will be better than expected and economy will witness sustainable growth. The Sensex, after making a high of 17948 in the closing hours ended the day gaining 243 points at 17935 and the Nifty closed the session with a gain of 77 points at 5368.The market breadth remained quite strong as out of 2920 stocks traded on BSE, as many as 2222 stocks ended higher. 640 stocks declined and 58 stocks ended flat.
FUTURE: Nifty futures has finally broken pass the 5325 – 5344 area after several unsuccessful attempts with good momentum, which is a very positive signal for the market to move higher towards the immediate target of 5440–5490 zone. Only a close below the 5255 with heavy volumes will stop the up move and take Nifty down towards the 5180 area.
In fact, Nifty Future is Bullish. The 5300–5322 area should now act as an immediate support for Nifty on the down side. On the upside the target zone of 5440–5490 now looks promising. Tuesday, we may see nifty future at 5400 area with a target of 5405-5410. Buy above 5374 with a stoploss of 5355 for a target 5384/5400 and sell below 5343 with a strict stoploss of 5356 for a target 5324/5306. Watch OI of 5300 put and try to play accordingly.
Reliance achieved my target of 1130 (high 1129.70) for 1092 in a single day. If anybody is holding GTLINFRA, GMRINFRA, JPASSO with the view of my last week's reco. it is suggested to hold the same for some more time.
For Sugar packs, I need to watch some more days, though it seems that some may buy with a small quantity with a view to average if it goes below the current market price.
For WEDNESDAY (07.04.2010):: Indian market traded almost flat, POWER AND REALITY STOCKS traded bullish while IT STOCKS appeared weak. SENSEX closed at 17941, up 5 points and NIFTY at 5366, down 2 points from the previous close. Both CNX MIDCAP index and BSE SMALLCAP index were up 0.5%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 730 against declines of 553 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included RELIANCE POWER, RCOM and SUZLON ENERGY while losers included HCL TECHNOLOGIES, CIPLA and MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA.
Tomorrow, we expect NIFTY to trade in the range 5320-5410. Traders are suggested to buy at declines as long as NIFTY is holding 5320 level. BANKING and TELECOM may attract buying while IT may face some more selling.
BUY NIFTY FUTURE AT DIPS AROUND 5325-5335 with a stoploss of 5300 and for a target 5373-5405 and SELL BANK NIFTY FUTURE BELOW 9707 with stoploss of 9740.10 for a target of 9663-9620.


FNO::  
BUY 5300CE ABOVE 111.70 TARGET 122-126 SL 105.95
BUY 5300PE ABOVE 50.45   TARGET 58-61     SL 46.25
BUY BHARTI 320CA ABOVE 7.40  TARGET 8.70-9.15   SL 6.55
In addition, WATCH  SATYAM, MTNL


For THURSDAY (08.04.2010):: Sensex crossed the 18000 mark for the first time after 27th Feb, 2008 touched 18047 but finally settled at 17970, gaining 28 points while Nifty finished at 5374, up 8 points after making a high of 5399. Nifty futures closed above 5343 for consecutive three days. So, on the downside 5343 may act as an immediate support followed by the major support of 5255 thereafter. On the upside the level to watch for is 5450 and thereafter the major resistance area of 5500. Nifty Future is still Bullish. Dips in the Nifty Futures towards the 5346-5350 area should be used a buying opportunity with proper stoploss of 5284 vfor target of 5450–5500. A close below the major support of 5250 with good volumes will take Nifty to lower levels.
If anybody follows recommendations from the last Monday to Wednesday, he/she might be gained for atleast Rs. 25,000/- and its a good achievement.
For intraday, Buy Nifty future above 5361 with a strict stoploss of 5345 for a target of 5393-5406 and Sell Nifty future below 5392 with a strict stoploss of 5409 for a target of 5364 and 5345.
Play for 5400PE and 5300 CE as per above range.
No stock recommendations for Thursday as you may see volatility in the market.
All these are for intraday basis and try to liquidate your long position at 5411-5450.

For FRIDAY (05.04.2010):: Stocks give away some of the recent advances, dollar hits two week high. Nifty Futures opened lower by 13 points @ 5368 and that was the high point of the day. Immediately it zoomed lower and pass the 5350 area. Finally it breaks the 5300 mark to close at the low point of the day @ 5293. Nifty Futures close below the 5300 (finally closed at 5301.60)  area is negative for the market .On the downside we may find an immediate support at 5255.  If 5255 breaks, we may see 5200-5180 also. On the upside the 5350 and 5400 mark may act as a major resistance.
FOR FRIDAY, MARKET WILL OPEN NEGATIVE TO FLAT AND WILL TRY TO RECOVER. POSSIBLY IT WILL CLOSE IN GREEN ACCORDING TO GLOBAL CUES. US MARKETS CLIMBS  ON UPBEAT EARNINGS, I.E., STRONG MARCH RETAIL SALES INCREASED OPTIMISM THAT THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS BACK.
If anybody wishes to add Sugar pack in their portfolio, try the same now with 25% of their planned investment for Sugar stocks at a time. Watch Bajajhind's level  139-140. A sudden break up is expected.
Disclaimer: I am holding 5400 CE bought at the last minute today @ 41.80


Note: Traders are advised to trade in Cash/Derivative segment according to their risk taking apetite.