"WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR MONDAY (23.01.2012)"

The 30-share index, Sensex climbed 584.39 points, or 3.62% to 16,739.01 for the week ended Jan. 20, 2012. On the other hand, the broad based NSE Nifty surged 182.60 points, or 3.75%, to 5,048.60 during the week.
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

HDFC SECURITIES: “With the markets rallying for the third consecutive week, the short term trend remains up. Immediate upside targets for the Nifty in the coming week are at 5100. The current uptrend would reverse if the Nifty moves below the immediate supports of 5004”.

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after exhibiting modest losses in last session, Nifty witnessed a very good session and closed with robust gains. Level wise, closing above the threshold 5000 levels may extend support to the bulls in the forthcoming sessions. Broader market witnessed strong sentiments and all segments closed on positive note. Despite this firmness, bulls lost the control to the bears. On account of firm performance, Nifty remained above its vital 9, 14, 50 and 100 day’s SMA placed at 4919, 4858, 4824 and 4940. VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, corrected sharply and closed at 21+, thus it indicates lesser than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 68.28 levels and MACD closed above the signal line. Market may continue to witness some volatile movements in forthcoming session”.

FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “Next session seems crucial for short term trend. Sensex has made a hanging man pattern on daily chart. A red candle in the next session may confirm the correction of the bulls rally. However, Nifty is expected to trade in the range 4980-5080 in the next session. Above the given range 5133 may act as a strong resistance zone while 4825-35 may act as a support level. Bank Nifty has a resistance around 9610 and 9740 while a good support around 9206 and 9000”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty showed good strength for 3rd consecutive week, which shows that Bulls are having strength at the moment. Nifty Jan future expiry is due in this week and volatility may be seen. On upside, Nifty has some resistance near 5100 levels and on downside Nifty has support in 4900-4800 zone. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5050. If Nifty shows strength above 5050 levels then we may see rally 5100/5175/5230. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5050 levels then selling pressure till 5000/4940/4870/4800 may also be seen”.

Duration	Action	Entry Zone (NF)	For Target of	Stop Loss
For Monday	Sell	5070-5090	5010	5105
For the Week	Sell	5060-5100	4970-494	5135

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “Next week will be eventful as well as volatile for the markets since Reliance results will be declared after the market hours on Friday, influencing Monday’s trading sentiments. Moreover coming week will be a shortened week on account of holiday on Thursday January 26. Monetary Policy on 24th and F&O expiry on 25th will provide the next trigger for the market”.

KARVY STOCK BROKING: “The market is expected to take cues from the global markets and open on a flat to positive note on Monday. Trade long in the Nifty above 5,050 or 5,020 with a stop loss below 5,000 for targets of 5,150 and 5,100 levels”.

VENTURA SECURITIES LIMITED: “On Monday, On Monday 5041-5027-5017 would be buy levels. Strong Markets won’t break 5034. Above 5041 nifty could test 5064 (Friday’s high), further it could open for 5104-5233. Nifty has support at 5004 (Friday’s low). Below it could open for 4938-4860-4797-4734-4646”.

GEPL CAPITAL: “Nifty is now very close to an important swing high resistance of 5099. Thus in the next few sessions if Nifty fails to surpass the level of 5099  then there is a possibility of a decline till 4965 to 4935 range. The level of 4900 is now an important support. Till the time 4900 is intact the upside momentum would remain intact. On the upside there is a very miniscule possibility that the resistance of 5099 gets conquered, in such a scenario Nifty may edge higher till 5213”.

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “For the week ahead, markets would track global cues, RBI’s monetary policy meet and earnings results. Among major companies, Kotak Bank, Yes Bank, BoB, Cairn India, GAIL, NTPC, Sterlite, Sesa Goa, Idea, Lupin and Biocon would be reporting results. We recommend investors to remain invested in blue-chip stocks and accumulate quality mid-cap stocks with strong business model, healthy balance sheet and with good corporate governance practices”.

ICICI SECURITIES: “The Nifty may continue to trade with a positive bias if it is able to hold 4950. Highest Call base of 5100 strike should act as an immediate resistance. In addition, the downward trending line at 5140, which is in force since November 2010, may act as a stiff resistance for the Nifty. At the same time, Reliance’s result and RBI’s monetary policy meet may keep markets volatile during the settlement week. The Banking index continued to outperform the Nifty as short covering coupled with fresh longs helped the index to breach its crucial resistance of 9250. We expect the Bank Nifty to continue to trade with a positive bias till it sustains above 9250”.

SMC TRADEONLINE (WISE MONEY): “Next resistance level in Nifty to watch is 5100 and on downside 4900 will act as strong resistance. Among put options, fresh put writing was observed in 4800, 4900 strikes puts, supported by open interest addition. 4900 and 4800 strike put has open interest of above 65 lakh shares, making it a resistance in the support term. On the call side, maximum option concentration is at 5100 level having open interest of more than 70 lakh shares. IV is flat but volatility is expected to increase as some major announcements are due next week. The Implied Volatility (IV) of ATM call options closed at 20.01% while the ATM IV of put options ended at 21.90% on Thursday. The put-call ratio of open interest increased from 1.34 to 1.85 last week indicating more put writing in OTM strikes. The range of 4900-5100 will remain crucial in the next week with expectation of increase in volatility”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “Technically the market is up but I would be cautious and be ready to short the market if it breaks the crucial support of 5000. The support for the Nifty is at 5000 and resistance at 5067-5145. I would wait for the first sign of weakness and then short it if it happens. From trading point of view, I would trade long as long as 5000 holds”.

ANGEL BROKING (Technical): “This week indices have rallied significantly after crossing 16421/4920 level and have managed to lose almost at the highest point of the week. Markets are now nearing strong resistance level of 17004/5100. Also, on daily charts, the ‘Gravestone Doji’ candlestick pattern indicates the possibility of a profit booking or a consolidation. We advise traders to book profits in individual counters and stay light on positions. Going forward, if indices sustain below 16572/4991 level, then indices are likely to correct towards 16384-16116/4931-4840 levels. Conversely, indices have closed convincingly above the 20-week EMA placed at 16504/4957 level. Also, we are observing a positive crossover on weekly ‘RSI-Smoothened’ oscillator. Therefore, after a healthy correction or consolidation, if indices manage to break and sustain above 17004/5100, then we may witness a strong upside momentum, which can push indices to test 200-day SMA level of 17384/5220 level. In the coming week, traders are advised to stay cautious as volatility is likely to increase on account of the RBI's monetary policy and derivative expiry”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has given a strong pull back rally of almost 9.48% in last fifteen trading sessions. Now it is likely to move in the range of 5060 and 4800 in the short term. If Nifty is able to maintain above 5060, an upward rally might carry it to 5110 and then 5200 in the extreme short term. However the support of 4800 is very crucial in the short term. If Nifty breaches 4800, it may further go down and take support near 4750 and then 4640. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 4970 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 5060. If Nifty breaks 4970, it may further go down to 4940 and then 4900. However, if it is able to sustain above 5060, the level of 5110–5150 would become the next target”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “For the next week Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5100-5150 in the upper side and 4850-4800 in the lower side”.

JRG EQUITY RESEARCH (IndiTrade): “The critical level for NSE Nifty for further upside is expected at 5080. The first resistance for the time ahead will be 5135, followed by 5230. The first support for the week is seen at 4960, which happens to be the 100-days Moving Average. This will be followed by 4870”.

INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES: “Expect volatility in Nifty to increase. On the upside, 5,080 is a resistance and on the downside 4,930 is a support”. (source: myiris)

UNICON WEEKLY: “Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish candle stick pattern, which shows positive sentiment on weekly closing basis. Oscillators like RSI is showing positive crossover in weekly chart, which shows supports are good for buying opportunity. Nifty closed above the 65 day moving average (4915) indicating the short term trend could be turning positive. Short term stochastics are showing oversold territory and positive sentiment till resistance levels at 5150-5220. The market setup is somewhat positive with trading range between 4900-5200 on weekly basis.  The next area of resistance is around at 5150-5220 and supports are at 4950-4860. If Nifty trades below 4900, it may take supports at 4800. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5150-5220 and supports at 4950-4860. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 17100-17375 and supports at 16500-16250. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 9850-10000 and supports at 9125-8875”.

FORTUNE INTERFINANCE LTD (FIFL): “In coming week Nifty might face resistance around 5120-5100 levels (previous top and weekly trend line resistance). If we get breakout above those level then we will see huge rally in the market till 5350 in the month of February. However, failing to close above this level will result in resumption of the main trend which is still down”.

R K GLOBAL: “In the week ahead, as most companies have announced their Q3FY’12 performance this week, so the market is looking ahead to most awaited RBI’s credit policy review expected on January 24. It has been a very exceptionally good January for the market, but it is primarily liquidity driven, a lot of mid-cap names, a lot of laggards have rallied. So, we look forward to a correction in the next week particularly if the credit policy disappoints”.

MAGNUM RESEARCH: “On the Nifty, 5100 levels on closing basis will continue to be the Major Resistance. If we cross this, 5200 level would become the next valid move. On the downside, we may witness a strong support near 4920 levels but closing below this level for consecutive two or more session may trigger another downfall till 4800 levels”.

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