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"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THURSDAY (15.09.2011)"


The benchmark 30-share index, BSE Sensex added 242.16 points or 1.47% at 16,709.60 with 24 components posting rise. Meanwhile, the broad based NSE Nifty climbed by 71.60 points or 1.45% at 5,012.55 with 38 components posting rise.
FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 45.82 crore whereas DII were net buyers of ` 182.68 crore on Tuesday, the 14th September 2011(prov. fig.)
VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:
HDFC SECURITIES:Today, we expect the Indian Markets to open in the green in line with global markets and later cues from the European markets. Among the sectoral indices, IT stocks could do well while Metal stocks look weak”.
CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney):Technically, Nifty exhibited a very busy show and witnessed a good closing after a gap of last three sessions. After yesterday’s DOJI star pattern, Nifty formed one bullish candle, which may require confirmation about reversal of ongoing bearish trend. Nifty, though closed with good gains, yet it regained the vital support of 5000, after losing it in previous session. Volumes were good and apparently buying momentum was visible and Nifty may be in bearish phase till it crosses vital resistances of 5050. Because of a good show, Nifty overcame the vital resistance of 14 days’ SMA placed at 4983 but closed below the vital support levels of 9, 50 & 100 day’s SMA placed at 5040, 5277 & 5398 levels; this may be the new resistances in forthcoming sessions. Modest buying in small cap & mid cap supported Bulls to snatch control from bears, because of which, Indices closed with positive market breadth. In today’s session, VIX, the barometer of uncertainty, closed at a higher level of 32.45, indicating more than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 45.95 levels and MACD closed below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that; market may continue to witness some positive spike”.
BONANZA ONLINE:Nifty showed good strength from support near 4900 levels and closed in green above 5000 levels. Nifty is showing momentum strength and buying interest may be continuing above 5030 levels. Market may take some clue for RBI policy which is to be announced on Friday therefore, volatility in second half of market is also expected to increase. For daily purpose, Trend deciding level is 5030 If Nifty shows strength above 5030 levels, then rally to 5060/5090/5160/5200 may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5030 levels then selling pressure till 4980/4940/4900/4850 may also be seen”.
KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty from 5.000 levels with stop loss placed above 4,980 targeting 5,030 and 5,050 levels. Alternatively trade short below 4,980 levels with a stoploss placed above 5,000 levels targeting 4,950 and 4,930 levels”.
GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES:Nifty witnessed huge short covering the later part of the day. The Nifty PCR was around 1.5 showing huge position on the put side. The positively trading European markets triggered a buying spree which resulted in the short covering and helped Nifty to close above 5000. If Nifty breaks the 5050 mark and closes above it then it can easily move towards 5117 levels while the support is there at 4950 and 4911 levels”.
GEPL CAPITAL: Nifty bounced back from the recent lows and ended at 5012. We were of the opinion that the entire up move from 4720 was a corrective bounce to the entire fall from 5740 level. Nifty faced severe resistance near 5200 level and has been trending down since then. In the immediate term Nifty continues to remain weak as long as it trades below 5100. We recommend a strategy of exiting from long positions near 5040 to 5060 range as the index has a possibility of drifting lower 4890 to 4870 range. The level of 4800 is now a critical support. In case Nifty breaches this level then it may retest 4720 in next few sessions”.
GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): Technically the market is week but is likely to see some upside in the days to come. Possibly 5100 could be achievable. The support for the Nifty is at 4950 and resistance at 5100.
MICROSEC SECURITIES:Nifty is expected to get a strong support near 4900. If Nifty breaches 4900, the short term trend would become negative and it may further go down to 4800 in the extreme short term. However, a breach of 5055 would open the gate for 5170 and then 5230. Traders are advised to maintain a strict stop loss at 4900 of all long positions. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 4970 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 5055. If Nifty breaks 4970, it may further go down to 4940 and then 4900. However, if it is able to sustain above 5055, the level of 5080–5125 would become the next target”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): The trend deciding level for the day is 16,617/4,985 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 16,847–16,984/ 5,053–5,094 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 16,617/4,985 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 16,480–16,250/4,945–4,877 levels”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): The trend deciding level for the day is 16,617/4,985 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 16,847–16,984/ 5,053–5,094 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 16,617/4,985 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 16,480–16,250/4,945–4,877 levels”.
INDIRATRADE SECURITIES:The markets closed with substantial gains on Wednesday after trading flat in the morning. The rally was mostly confined to largecap stocks and midcap and smallcap counters gained only moderately. IT was the biggest gainer of session and support also came from metal, banking, auto and oil & gas. Capital goods were the only sector that closed negative. For today, market likely to trade in the range between 5040 & 5070 in the upper side and 4970 & 4910 in the lower side”.
SHAREKHAN:  The Nifty bounced today and closed the day in the positive. It is now expected to continue with the uptrend and move up further. The key support in the short term will be around 4,940 and a resistance will be faced at 5,147. The Nifty has been forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern which is a bullish sign for the market and the target for the pattern is around 5,350. It has slipped down taking resistance at the 40 day moving average (DMA) and is expected to consolidate between 4,900 and 5,100 for some time. It has taken support around the lower end of the monthly bollinger band ie 4,720 and the same will act as a very strong support zone in the medium term. On the daily chart the Nifty has resistance around the 40 DMA ie at 5,147 and as and when it sustains above this average it would likely rally for our medium term target. On the daily chart the Nifty is trading below its 20 DMA and 40 DMA ie 4,974 and 5,147 respectively. On the daily chart the momentum indicator has given a positive crossover and is trading above the zero line. On the hourly chart, the Nifty is trading above its 20 hour moving average (HMA) and 40 HMA ie 4,965 and 5,002 respectively, which are its crucial levels in the immediate run”. (courtesy: myiris)
NIRMAL BANG SECURITIES:The trend still remains tricky, but if nifty future manages to hold above 5072 levels then we could see a steady rally emerging up to 5080–5120 shortly. And on the lower side if nifty breaks 4970 on the closing basis then only we could see fresh weakness prevailing, till then from a trading perspective markets give a buying opportunity keeping a stop-loss of 4900. Fresh rally could be seen only if nifty future maintains above 5072 level, till then only should maintain a caution. Weakness could be seen if nifty future starts trading below 4970”.
HEM SECURITIES:Gains in European shares triggered by hopes of some moves from European leaders towards easing the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis helped Indian shares break a three-day losing streak. For tomorrow, markets are expected to be upward”.
INVENTURE GROWTH & SECURITIES:Markets are expected to take cues from the Advance tax numbers to be announced on Sep. 15, 2011 and the stance RBI takes on the monetary tightening on September 16. Markets are already discounting a hike of 25bps after inflation come in at higher levels. Thus any result below or above the expectation will decide the course of the markets in the short term”.
FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES:Volatility can be the order of the day; an intra-day upside (seems like a possibility) could come in above the 5015 level while significant resistance at higher levels (5050) – would limit the upside. The outlook has turned neutral again while resistance comes in at the 5325+ level and support comes in at the 4720 level.
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