"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR THURSDAY (28.04.2011)"

FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 711.86 crore (prov. cash market fig).

Nifty closed at 5,833.90, down by 34.50 points or 0.59 percent over the previous day closing of 5,868.40, after witnessing a low of 5,819.95 and a high of 5,892.35. Sensex closed at 19,448.69, down by 96.66 points or 0.49 percent over the previous day closing of 19,545.35. It touched an intraday low of 19,412.79 and high of 19,633.63. The markets’ breadth was negative. Out of 2,987 stocks traded, 1,317 stocks advanced, 1,558 stocks declined and 112 stocks remained unchanged. In Sensex, 7 stocks advanced and 23 stocks declined.

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Among the major companies, LIC Housing Finance, ICICI Bank, Bank of Baroda, Vijaya Bank, Bata India, JSW Energy, Crompton Greaves, Biocon, Nagarjuna Fertilizer, Navneet Publications are scheduled to announce result today.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after last two sessions’ consolidation, today also, Nifty continued its consolidation and range bound movement. Though Nifty opened on firm note but profit booking took it down to breach the vital support of 5850. The markets were quite inconsistent in today’s trade and closed with moderate declines after recovering from days low. Owing to, today’s weak session, after four consecutive day, Nifty fell below than it’s 15 day’s SMA placed at 5845. This may spur cautious feeling among the buyers. As per ongoing trend, once again bears outnumbered the bulls, which is a weakening trend for market. At closing, Nifty successfully maintained its closing above 9, 50 & 100 day’s SMA 5835, 5609 & 5705. These levels may act as new supports, in coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX moved a little higher and recorded at 21.27%, indicating higher volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 56 levels and MACD was below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals, that market may witness range bound movements in coming sessions”.

FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session, Nifty is expected to trade in a wide range 5780-5903. Beyond this range 5930 might be strong resistance level while 5730 may act as another support level. Traders are suggested to stay bearish as long as NIFTY is trading below 5944 level. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range 11710-11960. Still, 12060 is a strong resistance while 11550 is another support level”.

KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty above 5,800, with stop loss at 5,780 targeting 5,880-5,900 levels”.

GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Nifty today closed on negative note and may remain in a range. It is having support at 5787 and 5743 (200 DMA) levels while the resistance is at 5901 levels. Volatility will be on the high as tomorrow is the April F&O expiry”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): ”... ‘Technically nothing has changed in the last few days and the market is expected to be volatile and trend less’ and the market unfolded as expected volatile and trend less…technically the market looks tired and has a stiff resistance around 5900 and so volatility is not ruled with sluggishness. The support for the Nifty is at 5800-5771 and resistance at 5900-5971. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 19450-19226 and resistance at 19600-19713”.

ANGEL BROKING (Mileen Vasudeo): “Markets opened on a positive note, but selling pressure dominated throughout the trading session and the indices finally closed in the red. At present, in view of the current price action there is no clarity of the trend. We maintain our view that momentum on the upside would resume only above 19,650/5,900 levels and  then indices may test the prior swing high of 19,811/5,944 or even extend their gains to 19,990/6,000 levels in couple of trading sessions. On the downside, indices have support at 19,306-19,171/5,791-5,760 levels”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “All eyes are naturally on today’s Federal Reserve policy meeting and the Ben Bernanke’s conference later on. The US central bank is likely to say that it will keep borrowing costs at record low for some time to come to sustain the ongoing economic recovery. That could put more pressure on the dollar and boost the currency carry trades. Risky asset classes such as equities and commodities should benefit from the Fed’s stance. For India, the immediate event to watch out for will be the F&O expiry on Thursday, corporate results and next week’s RBI policy meeting. FII inflows have tapered off in the past few sessions. So, that will continue to be a critical variable as well. For the time being, it looks like the Indian market might consolidate before heading north again”.

BONANZA PORTFOLIOS (Puneet Kinra): “After making Doji candlestick pattern, Nifty showed selling pressure and closed in red, which shows bears are trying to take control from higher levels. Nifty April future expiry on Thursday, which shows volatility, may be seen. On upside Nifty has resistance zone in 5,900-5,950 and on downside Nifty has support zone in 5,830-5,780. For daily purpose, trend deciding level is at 5,850. If Nifty shows strength above 5,850 levels, then rally to 5,900/5,950/6,000 levels may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5,850 levels then profit booking till 5,780/5,725 may also be seen”.

EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS: “On the lower side Nifty is likely to face strong support in the vicinity of 5780-5800 level, the level (5800) which consists of the third highest OI (i.e. 64.40 lacs shares) among the Nifty put options. On the other hand on the higher side Nifty is likely to face strong resistance in the vicinity of 5920-5940 level, the level (5900) which consists of the highest in OI (i.e. 103.23 lacs shares) among the Nifty Call Options”. 

RAJATKBOSE.COM (Rajat Bose): “We need to watch for the levels of 5842 – 5845, this is the key zone for the Nifty staying above would signal strength while if it were to stay below this range then weakness might get a shot in the arm and the market may slide further. In any case, the level of 5809 and 5791 are the two key levels to monitor for a slide below this major support range would suggest some serious problem and a dip towards 5761 could then be quite possible. Further down, we need to watch 5739 and 5703. We do not envisage the index breaking down below 5703 on closing price basis.

On the upside, if the index moves up and stays above 5853 then the range between 5867 and 5876 would bring in some supplies. Only when you see the Nifty managing to get past 5892 then consider the possibility of higher levels being seen going forward. Above the 5900-levels, 5912 would be the first stop over and then 5923, 5936 and 5952 to be watched”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): “The trend deciding level for the day is 19,498/5,849 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19,584–19,719/ 5,878–5,921 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 19,498/5,849 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19,363–19,278/5,805–5,776 levels”.

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