"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR TUESDAY (26.04.2011)"

FIIs were net sellers with the tune of ` 377.59 crore (prov. cash market fig). 

The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 17.92 points or 0.09% at 19,584.31. The index gained 95.26 points at the day's high of 19,697.49 in morning trade, its highest level since 15 April 2011. The Sensex fell 70.89 points at the day's low of 19,531.34 in early trade. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 10.20 points or 0.17% to 5,874.50. The Nifty hit high of 5,906.60 in morning trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.09% and the BSE Small-Cap index gained 0.24%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was negative. On BSE, 1565 shares declined while 1351 shares advanced and a total of 91 shares remained unchanged. The breadth was positive earlier in the day. Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 18 declined while the rest advanced.

BSE clocked turnover of ` 2719 crore, lower than ` 3636.83 crore on Thursday, 21 April 2011.

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VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

SKP SECURITIES: “Nifty future may face resistance at 5950-6000 and take Support at 5820-5750”.

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, after three successive positive closing, today, Nifty exhibited a highly range bound show and closed the session in red with modest cut. Though Nifty overcame the resistance of 5900, but owing to profit booking pressure slipped into red. On the back of a good latent buying, Nifty maintained the vital support of 5850, which may be a crucial resurrecting point for the bulls. Despite, today’s weak session, for the third consecutive day, Nifty managed to close above 9 & 15 day’s SMA placed at 5827 & 5848 this may spur positive feeling among the buyers. Today, once again bears outnumbered the bulls, which is a weakening trend for market. At closing, Nifty successfully maintained its closing above 50 & 100 day’s SMA 5585 & 5704. These levels may act as new supports, in coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX moved a little higher and recorded at 20.91%, indicating higher volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the session was at 59.47 levels and MACD was below the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals, that market may witness range bound movements in coming sessions”.

FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “In the next session Nifty is expected to trade in a range 5852-5905. If sustained below this range it may test 5810 and 5780 levels. Further 5930 and 5944 may act as strong resistance level. As stated in the previous newsletters, traders are suggested to remain bearish as long as Nifty is trading below 5944. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range11980-11710. If moved beyond this range 12060 may act as a strong resistance level while 11550 may act as strong support levels”.

KARVY STOCK:  “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive note tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty if it holds above 5850 with a stop loss placed at 5820, for targets of 5920 and 5950 levels”.

GEOJIT BNP PARIBAS FINANCIAL SERVICES (Alex Mathews): “Nifty today closed on a flat to negative note and is expected to remain volatile ahead of the April expiry. Expect a consolidation at 5,850 and 5,800 levels and it will get support from the upcoming Q4 results. Major resistance for the market is at 6,052 levels”.

PINC RESEARCH: “The zone of 5920-5950 remains an important ceiling for the Nifty. A break above this zone will result in the following 1) Confirm the start of a new trend which started from last week’s low of 5695 in the medium term. 2) It would also provide the necessary impetus for a continued upmove in the short term as well. Hence, the winner of this see saw battle will provide the market with the next directional thrust. We expect the bulls to win eventually”.

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): ”... ‘However in all probability the market has a stiff resistance at 5971 until F&O expiry…crucial support to watch would be 5800’ the market has unfolded in typical bearish sideways mode...so far the market still has a stiff resistance in the upper regions of 5971. The support for the Nifty is at 5800 and resistance at 5971. The crucial support on the Sensex on the downside is 19450 and resistance at 19713”.

ANGEL BROKING (Mileen Vasudeo): “Markets opened on a flat note and traded in a narrow range of 19,700-19,530/5,910-5,855 levels throughout the day. Also, it is observed that Nifty has filled the positive gap created on Thursday’s trading session. We maintain our view that any close above 19,811/5,944 levels would lead the indices to test 20,210- 20,530/6,051-6,150 levels. On the downside, indices have support at 19,345-19,170/5,800-5,760 levels”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “For India, the good thing is FIIs continue to be net buyers. Although corporate results have been mixed so far, YoY growth in profits and sales is robust. Inflation remains a major pressure point, resulting in expectations of further rate hikes. The market should rediscover its winning ways in the coming days but expect the volatility to continue in light of the F&O expiry on Thursday. Results will continue to drive the sentiment around the world. Globally, investors will brace for the outcome of the latest Fed policy meeting on Wednesday, besides the US GDP data and Ben Bernanke`s conference”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “Technically, the short term crucial resistance of Nifty lies in the band of 5945-5970. If Nifty is able to maintain above 5970, an upward rally might take it to 6050 and then 6180 in the extreme short term. However, a breach of 5690 would be treated as the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may take support at 5530. Traders are advised to maintain a stop loss at 5690 of the long positions. On an intra-day basis Nifty has a support at 5840 and is likely to face a stiff resistance near 5915. If Nifty breaks 5840, it may further go down to 5805 and then 5760. However, if it is able to sustain above 5915, the level of 5945–5970 would become the next target”.

BONANZA PORTFOLIOS (Puneet Kinra): “Nifty showed shooting star candlestick pattern on daily charts, which shows indecision among bulls and bears at higher levels. Nifty is showing volatility for two trading days. Volatility movement may be continuing till Nifty April future expiry in this week. For daily purpose, trend deciding level is at 5,870. If Nifty shows strength above 5,870 levels, then rally to 5,900/5,950/6,000 levels may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 5,870 levels then profit booking till 5,835/5,780/5,725 may also be seen”. 
EDELWEISS FINANCIAL ADVISORS: “On the lower side Nifty is likely to face strong support in the vicinity of 5780-5800 level, the level (5800) which consists of the second highest OI (i.e. 72.72 lacs shares) among the Nifty put options. On the other hand on the higher side Nifty is likely to face strong resistance in the vicinity of 5920-5940 level, the level (5900) which consists of the second highest in OI (i.e. 69.15 lacs shares) among the Nifty Call Options”. 

ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): “The trend deciding level for the day is 19,585/5,878 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19,697–19,810/5,903-5,931 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 19,585/5,878 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19,472–19,360/5,850-5,825 levels”. 
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