"MARKET OUTLOOK & TRADING IDEA FOR MONDAY (11.04.2011)"

FIIs were net buyers with the tune of ` 384.85 crore (prov. cash market fig).

The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 139.73 points or 0.71% to 19,451.45, its lowest closing level since 1 April 2011. The Sensex fell 202.76 points at the day's low of 19,388.42 in late trade. The index gained 106.03 points at the day's high of 19,697.21 in early trade. The S&P CNX Nifty was down 43.70 points or 0.74% to 5,842 it lowest closing level since 1 April 2011. Nifty hit low of 5,822 in late trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 1.25% and the BSE Small-Cap index declined 1.4%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was weak. On BSE, 1943 shares declined while 1009 shares advanced and a total of 87 shares remained unchanged. The breadth was strong at the onset of the trading session.

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 25 declined while the rest advanced.

FOR DETAILS, “READ HERE”.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

SKP SECURITIES: “Nifty future may face resistance at 5940-6000 and take Support at 5770-5700”. 

KOTAK SECURITIES (Sanjeev Zarbade): “In the short-term, it is likely that the markets may consolidate after strong rally of the recent weeks. Numbers of Infosys on forthcoming Friday will also be closely watched for clues on IT spending. Small and mid caps may continue to outperform the frontlines. However, amidst strong FII buying, investors must not lose sight of the crude oil prices which have continued to inch up further to USD 122 per barrel (Brent Crude). Rising crude and the reluctance of policy makers to pass on the prices to consumers is resulting in a fiscal strain on the economy. Investors are advised to be cautious at these levels and wait for declines to make fresh buying. Staggered buying is advised at these levels”. 

FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “Nifty may be in the range of 5810-5906 and support may be at 5752 will play a key role for the coming session and the resistance may be at 5930/5951 and at last 5972.Our view for the Nifty is bearish for the day so go short at every rise with the stoploss of above 5930 on the spot basis. In the next session, Bank nifty is expected to trade in the range 11580-11861. Also, 11960 might be strong resistance level for Bank Nifty while 11430 might act as another support level”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “After showing strength for 2 consecutive weeks, Nifty made shooting star candlestick pattern on weekly charts, which shows bears are trying to take control from higher levels. Delivery positions should be taken only if NIFTY sustains above 5825 and taking into account the volatility in the stocks due to results season. For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5825-5840. If Nifty shows strength above 5840 levels then we may see rally to 5900/5950/6050/6180 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5820 levels then profit booking till 5775/5700/5600 may also be seen”. 

KARVY STOCK: “The market will take cues from the global markets and is expected to open on a flat to positive tomorrow. Trade long in Nifty from current levels else from 5820 with stop loss placed above 5800 targeting 5850 and 5870 levels”. 

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Mid and small cap stocks were the flavour of the week as they rallied strongly amidst a marginal move in the nifty and sensex. BSE Mid Cap and BSE Small Cap moved up 2.7% and 5% while the premier indices were up 0.2-0.3%. Sectorally, capital goods and realty made handsome gains. FII flows continued to be very strong at Rs71bn for the week. This is on top of FII flows of ~$2bn a fortnight before. Large mid-caps outside the Nifty-50 are likely to have attracted these flows this week. The market has taken a breather on the last day of the week after a sharp run-up for three weeks. It is likely to consolidate for a few days before moving up again as the market sentiment remains positive. We advise our investors to remain invested. Markets would enter the result season moving into the next week, which could again provide some long term opportunity owing to correction/technical selling. Crude continues to be the single largest worry as on date. Technically, the market is likely to find support at 5810 & 5775 levels and would face resistance at 5875 & 5930 levels”. 

ICICI SECURITIES: “Major accumulation in any strike was not seen. Highest OI accumulation is at 5700 Put and 6000 Call, which seems a likely range in the near term. The upcoming result announcements and IIP numbers may decide the further index movement. We expect the Nifty to trade in the range of 5700-6000 levels. On the higher side, 5900 is expected to pose a significant resistance and fresh round of covering can be expected only if the Nifty sustains above 5900. The Bank Nifty may trade with a negative to range-bound bias with resistance around 11900 levels. On the downside, immediate support is placed around 11500 levels. Strong support for the Banking index lies around 11200”.

PINC MONEY: “The Nifty has made a trend channel since October 2009. After falling back into the channel, the Nifty reached its lower support level of 5,200. The Nifty received support at the lower channel line and has bounced back on anticipated lines. It is now facing resistance at the top of this channel. The Medium term oscillator (Stochastic) has started moving up after it hit oversold levels. This supports the trend of the index which is already looking strong at current levels. In line with our positive bias, the index has advanced to 5,950. This level coincides with the trend line resistance. This is a zone from where a period of consolidation is likely. We retain our bullish view on the Nifty in the medium term. However, due to the resistance at the trend channel line, the index up move can halt here for a while”. 

GABA & GABA FINANCIAL ADVISORS PVT LTD (Prakash Gaba): “....‘Technically I would say that 5956 and max 5971 seems to be a strong resistance to deal with and the market could exhaust on its way up for the week’ the market unfolded exhausted as expected and has closed in the red…technically the market looks tired and may see some more profit booking in the days to come… The support for the Nifty is at 5717 and resistance at 5870-5956.The crucial support on the BSE Sensex on the downside is 19040 and resistance at 19550-19842”.

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “There are not many catalysts that could take the market further up from here in the near term. On the flip side, there are a few headwinds, especially those emanating from the overseas markets, which could dampen the sentiment. On the local front, attention will shift to earnings. FII inflows and inflation are the other two variables one should keep a close eye on”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES: “The weekly chart of Nifty is showing that it has made a “Doji” pattern, which indicates a possible trend reversal. Now Nifty is facing a short term crucial support at 5710 (near 200 DMA). If Nifty breaches 5710, it may further go down to 5630 and then 5520 in the short term. However, the crucial resistance of Nifty lies near 5980. A breach of 5980 would open the gate for 6070. Traders are advised to maintain a stop loss at 5700 of the long positions. For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 5740 and the resistance is 5875. If Nifty breaks 5740, it may further go down to 5700 and then 5630. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5875, the level of 5930-5980 would become the next target”. 

JRG SECURITIES (IndiTrade.com): “Despite of a positive start of the week, the market failed to hold the upside. The sell-off which can be interpreted as the profit-booking ahead of the holidays erased the initial gains and the market closed flat. A number of momentum indicators have entered the retracement phase, following the sell-off. RSI has dropped from the overbought zone. So is Stochastic Oscillators. However, the continuing trend in the MACD is giving hopes for recovery in the days to come. Money-flow is also continuing in the positive zone, indicated by the continuing FII buying. The critical level for NSE Nifty for the week to come is seen at 5800. A break below can stretch the downside further. But any downside will possibly find severe support at 5700 levels, for this being the 200-days Moving Average. The lower support below this for the coming week will be 5660. On upside, the first resistance is expected at 5905, followed by 5960”.

INDIRATRADE SECURITIES: “This week Nifty likely to trade in the range between 5950-6100 in the upper side and 5700-5650 in the lower side”.

ANAGRAM: “The 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the 5348-5944 rally, placed at 5716, 5646 and 5575 respectively as shown in the daily chart below, would serve as the supports on the way down. The 200 day simple moving average, currently at 5716, coincides with the 38.2% retracement level and makes it a strong support. On the upside, a decisive crossover of 5944 is required for the further up move. If that happens, Nifty would set it's eyes on 6181, the top made on 4 January 2011”.
ANGEL BROKING (Daily Outlook): “The trend deciding level for the day is 19512/5864 levels. If Nifty trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 19636–19821/5905–5969 levels. However, if Nifty trades below 19512/5864 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 19328–19204/5800–5759 levels”. 

FOR TECHNICALS, “READ HERE” .