"MARKET OUTLOOS & TRADING IDEA FOR MONDAY (28.03.2011)"

FIIs were net buyers with the tune of Rs. 1446.18 crore (prov. cash market fig).

The BSE 30-share Sensex was up 464.90 points or 2.53% to 18,815.64, its highest closing since 25 January 2011. The index gained 507.56 points at the day's high of 18,858.30 in late trade. The Sensex rose 129.95 points at the day's low of 18,480.69 in early trade. The S&P CNX Nifty was up 131.85 points or 2.39% to 5,654.25, its highest closing since 25 January 2011. The Nifty hit an intraday high of 5,667.10. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 1% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 1.02%. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was strong. On BSE, 1722 shares advanced while 1255 shares declined and a total of 106 shares remained unchanged.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs. 3265 crore, lower than Thursday's Rs. 3553 crore.

FOR DETAILS, “READ HERE”.

VIEWS FROM DIFFERENT BROKING HOUSES:

SKP SECURITIES: “Nifty future may face resistance at 5750-5850 and take Support at 5550-5520”. 

CANARA BANK SECURITIES (CanMoney): “Technically, Nifty extended the positive momentum to fourth consecutive day and closed after making a big positive candle, which is a clear breakout on upper side. As per candlestick pattern, after forming three bullish soldier pattern, Nifty leaped toward 200 day’s SMA, which is a big positive for bulls. In today’s session, there was buying aided with short covering, which finally adjusts with good gains. Owing to higher buying and lesser volatility, Nifty breached 5600 level and closed above this. Though, Nifty maintained a good closing, yet it closed below the vital level of 100 & 200 day’s SMA placed at 5748 & 5689 levels; although it closed above the sentimental levels of 9,14& 50 day’s SMA 5468,5481 & 5495 these levels may act as new ranges, in coming sessions. In today’s session, VIX corrected a little and closed at a modest level of 19.84%, thus indicating lesser than average volatility in market in the forthcoming sessions. RSI (14) for the day was at 60.37 levels and MACD was above the signal line, thus combined together they are giving the signals that market may witness positive movement in coming session”. 

FAIRWEALTH SECURITIES: “The Nifty has now entered into the bull orbit in the short term with the making of the flag pattern which is a bullish signal. Next session’s range for the Nifty may be 5624-5691 and support for the Nifty will at 5608 after breaching the level of below 5624 and the resistance on the upper side may at 5725 and 5744. Banking and IT sector may attract some more buying while Oil & Gas may appear comparatively weak. Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range. 11180-11421. Further, 11631 may act as resistance level while 11000-11080 may act as another support level”.

BONANZA ONLINE: “Nifty maintained above 5600 levels with good volumes, which shows, sentiment may remain bullish in coming week. However, volatility may be seen during the week as Nifty March future expiry is due in this week.

For trading during the coming sessions, trend deciding level is 5650. If Nifty shows strength above 5650 levels, then we may see rally to 5700/5750/5850 levels. If Nifty doesn’t sustain above 5650 levels then profit booking till 5550/5500/5440/5350 may also be seen”.

BONANZA PORTFOLIO (Shanu Goel): “The rally has turned the market sentiments positive. Market is likely to be volatile as settlement of March derivative contracts is due on March 31. The cash flow trend in equity market is also expected to be influenced by financial year ending on March 31”. 

ADITYA BIRLA MONEY (MONEY WEEKLY): “Markets have broken out of the immediate range with very strong buying seen across sectors but predominantly confined to large-caps. The rally could be attributed to the year-end phenomenon, some NAV popping and Investments from the domestic life Insurance companies and relatively better equities internationally. FII’s too have bought in closer to Rs. 24bn over the last few trading sessions post the exuberance emitted by one of the largest Investor of the world. Meanwhile government is trying to speed up the reforms process which has also helped the market.

We expect markets to be extremely choppy on account of expiry and year end shuffling of positions. Post this; the focus would shift to the corporate earnings, which is due in another two weeks. In the overall context of things, it looks as if this rally is going to get extended and play out even stronger over the next week. We advise our investors to stay invested and capitalize on opportunities arising on account of volatility in the last week of march. We expect, large and quality mid-caps to pick up momentum.

Technically, market is likely to find support at 5600 & 5535 levels and would face resistance at 5700 & 5760 levels”. 

ICICI SECURITIES: “We expect Nifty to trade range-bound with a positive bias if it is able to sustain above 5550 levels. On the higher side, Nifty may find resistance around 5720-5750 levels. While supports are expected to emerge around 5550 levels, significant directional movement is not expected in the settlement week unlike previous two settlements. The Bank Nifty closed above its critical resistances of 11050/11200 levels. Immediate resistance for the banking index lies around 11650 levels”. 

IIFL (Amar Ambani): “Although the market has regained some of the lost ground in the past 2-3 days, the market participants seem to be lacking in conviction. In addition, we are confronting a spate of overseas issues like the MENA tensions, high oil prices, euro-zone fiscal mess and the Japanese nuclear problem. In this backdrop, one cannot afford to be complacent. It would be prudent to stay a little cautious”.

MICROSEC SECURITIES (Weekly): “The daily chart of Nifty is showing that it has given a bullish break out of “Ascending Triangle” pattern neck line at 5610 on Friday. Now it is facing a crucial resistance at 200 DMA (near 5690). If Nifty is able to maintain above 5690, an up ward rally might take it to 5830 and then 6000 in the short term. However a breach of 5400 would be treated as the end of current rally and in that case Nifty may take support near 5300.

For the coming week, first support of Nifty lies at 5600 and the resistance is 5690. If Nifty breaks 5600, it may further go down to 5540 and then 5470. However, if Nifty is able to sustain above 5690, the level of 5750-5830 would become the next target”.

FOR TECHNICALS, “READ HERE”.