NIFTY future is moving in a range between 4700-5400 till now during the year 2010. The breaking of this range would suggest 6000 or 3800. The Monsoons are the next trigger. A good monsoon is somewhat factored in, but a delay would trigger a sell off. Spain has unemployment of 20 pc and the ratings downgrade late Friday from AAA to AA+ results US markets in RED on Friday and set off a sell for Indian Market. The number of countries in trouble are expanding. Oil prices will move higher with the US problems with Offshore drilling. The Government will announce GDP figures for the January-March quarter as well as for the full year on Monday. Reports suggest a sharp bounce back from the same period last year. Consensus estimates are pointing to 8-8.5% kind of a number for Q4. For the whole year, the GDP may just beat the official forecast of 7.2%.
Nifty futures had a roller coaster ride last week. From a high of 5023 on Monday, it recorded a low of 4786 on Tuesday. It gained on the last three days of the week to reach a high of 5055 on Friday. It closed at 5037 for the week. As the trading has been entirely based on Global cues, any prediction has become useless.
The Nifty future is supported by the 50 WMA at 4918. The Nifty futures is still trading below its short term weekly moving averages. The 5, 10 and 20 week moving averages are at 5065, 5186 and 5092 respectively. These short term averages may act as resistances. 5105 is a key figure because it was the previous top about 2 weeks back. Positional Shorts can keep that as a stop loss.
Note: Will update on Monday morning. From now on, will update calls on "Jayfromstockmarketsinindia.blogspot.com"
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